International Affairs

I just read an interesting article theorizing that the news Japan and the US will be coordinating in the defense of Taiwan is a punishment of China for how it has handled the North Korea affair (hat tip: Instapundit). Other good articles discuss the "alignments" (great power alliances), and the raw materials shortages that will drive China to war much as they did Japan in the 1930s (source for both: Chrenkoff).

I firmly believe that China operates explicitly with the "Sphere of Influence" theory of geopolitics, and that North Korea is within the scope of it's current sphere. China's aspirations for a new East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere have been thinly veiled, if that, for some time. It is reassuring to see that Japan recognizes the threat and is moving to signal it's determination to fight it, and that the US is cognizant enough to concur. This is a clash of the Sea Powers against a Heartland Power in classic geopolitical theory.

The announcement by North Korea that they are now a nuclear-armed power is not much of a surprise to anyone. The further behavior of the regime is also predictable: in addition to the existing clientele list for the rogue state many new powers will be attracted to the nuclear knowledge-mart that is now officially open in East Asia. The bluster and sabre-rattling will now take a much darker turn, for the hyperbolic threats to turn the atheist version of the Great Satan into a lake of fire must now be regarded as accurate descriptions of threats.

Korea is the last battlefield of the Cold War. The power opposite us is not merely North Korea. The communist world worked off of an ideologically driven "spheres of influence" theory of international geopolitics. China, the largest remaining bastion of international communism, continues to operate under this premise. China views North Korea as an essential portion of it's sphere of influence, claimed under the banner of necessity when MacArthur's legions threatened to cross the Yalu in the winter of 1950. China has since maintained North Korea as a forward area. North Korea could not have concealed the existence of this nuclear program from the Chinese. Despite the binding ties of support that China uses to both prop up and control North Korea, not everything North Korea does is scripted by Beijing.

If I was sitting in Beijing, I would see this as a slap in the face, an act of insubordination against one's betters.

The response of North Korea's neighbors will be just as predictable. Countries sitting on the fence will need to react to make sure their security is guaranteed. I don't think I can say it better than Belmont Club in All For One and One For All 2:



The intriguing question is: why now? I cannot see any advantage to North Korea from this announcement. More importantly, I do not see any advantage from China at this time. The regime in Pyongyang may think that the United States is simultaneously too distracted by the simultaneous efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and for relief in Indonesia to react. I am not sure how to analyze that point yet.

I believe the United States, as it should, acknowledges that North Korea is as much in the Chinese sphere as South Korea is in the U.S. sphere. China needs to step up to the plate and take responsibility for this client state. They need to recognize the larger geostrategic ramifications of this action and shut down the nuclear program, or the regime, if necessary.

For further reading, I recommend the Belmont Club articles All For One and One For All 2 and I Lied.

I am very pleased that Congress passed the Tsunami Donation 2004 Write-Off rule. I believe this is morally right. I am sure there are people out there that take askance at that, that an intrusion of mere fiduciary motives should not be a motivating force for people, that the absolute rightness of it is all they ought to need, an all we should acknowledge. But having this marginal factor, perhaps pushing a procrastinator over the edge, or making a person increase their donation for a few dollars, is just.

The real scandal is this: where are the donations from the Gulf states? Indonesia, the largest muslim country in the world, is devastated. Where is the ummah? Where is the zakāh of the faithful?

Also, finding a silver lining, check out this list of funny quotes from the Boxing Day Tsunami aftermath.

Update: An imam in Bana Aceh says that the tsunami was a punishment from Allah for insufficient legislation of shari'a.